Extra time

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paul merson
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Extra time

Post by paul merson »

Thoughts Con on this being adapted to football?

In the quest to avoid penalty shootouts (which is a quest we fully support), the NHL proposed yesterday to the Board of Governors a five-minute three-on-three overtime to end games. The open ice will be far more conducive to goal scoring, and will inevitably lead to fewer points in the standings being doled out for winning a shootout. The Board approved the rule change, along with a couple minor rule changes and the inevitable introduction of a coach’s challenge.

Almost 14% of games ended in shootouts last season, and while goalies won’t be psyched about all the shots coming their way, hockey fans like us are all about the new, fast-paced play.
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Adolf Hĭtler
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Re: Extra time

Post by Adolf Hĭtler »

I don't think clubs could afford to keep an ice rink handy for tie breaker situations.
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Re: Extra time

Post by pernunz »

There's no problem with penalty shootouts as a mechanism for determining a tie.
The problem is that it is so heavily weighted toward the team that wins the toss and goes first.

Instead of ABABABABAB for the turn order, it should be ABBA BAAB AB for more parity.

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Re: Extra time

Post by God is an Englishman »

pernunz wrote:There's no problem with penalty shootouts as a mechanism for determining a tie.
The problem is that it is so heavily weighted toward the team that wins the toss and goes first.

Instead of ABABABABAB for the turn order, it should be ABBA BAAB AB for more parity.
I assume this is a joke.
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Re: Extra time

Post by Jeremy Paxman »

pernunz wrote:There's no problem with penalty shootouts as a mechanism for determining a tie.
The problem is that it is so heavily weighted toward the team that wins the toss and goes first.
How so?
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Re: Extra time

Post by Con M »

paul merson wrote:Thoughts Con on this being adapted to football?

In the quest to avoid penalty shootouts (which is a quest we fully support), the NHL proposed yesterday to the Board of Governors a five-minute three-on-three overtime to end games. The open ice will be far more conducive to goal scoring, and will inevitably lead to fewer points in the standings being doled out for winning a shootout. The Board approved the rule change, along with a couple minor rule changes and the inevitable introduction of a coach’s challenge.

Almost 14% of games ended in shootouts last season, and while goalies won’t be psyched about all the shots coming their way, hockey fans like us are all about the new, fast-paced play.
Sorry for belated response, Mers.

For mine, the idea of a tie-breaker must come from the game itself - cannot change the very nature/structure of the game.

Earlier this year a proposal was before I.F.A.B. to allow a 4th sub in that brutal extra-time so as to introduce fresh legs into the contest, increasing the chances of a goal & thus avoiding the shoot-out.

Back in antiquity, in Scotland from memory, corners were counted to decide cup games. Also back in antiquity when I went to school that method was used to decide cup matches.
I thought a tie-breaker variation of that could be counting corners conceded in the six-yard box or penalty area during extra time, thus rewarding teams who attacked & blasted away at opponents & forced such corners.

But the World is now used to penalties as the tie-breaker & want to see the ball hitting the net, not counting (short) corners as described above. As a 'keeper you would have to say there is a skill in saving those penalties (and scoring them).

I think penalties as cup tie-breakers is here to stay.

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Re: Extra time

Post by paul merson »

Con M wrote:
paul merson wrote:Thoughts Con on this being adapted to football?

In the quest to avoid penalty shootouts (which is a quest we fully support), the NHL proposed yesterday to the Board of Governors a five-minute three-on-three overtime to end games. The open ice will be far more conducive to goal scoring, and will inevitably lead to fewer points in the standings being doled out for winning a shootout. The Board approved the rule change, along with a couple minor rule changes and the inevitable introduction of a coach’s challenge.

Almost 14% of games ended in shootouts last season, and while goalies won’t be psyched about all the shots coming their way, hockey fans like us are all about the new, fast-paced play.
Sorry for belated response, Mers.

For mine, the idea of a tie-breaker must come from the game itself - cannot change the very nature/structure of the game.

Earlier this year a proposal was before I.F.A.B. to allow a 4th sub in that brutal extra-time so as to introduce fresh legs into the contest, increasing the chances of a goal & thus avoiding the shoot-out.

Back in antiquity, in Scotland from memory, corners were counted to decide cup games. Also back in antiquity when I went to school that method was used to decide cup matches.
I thought a tie-breaker variation of that could be counting corners conceded in the six-yard box or penalty area during extra time, thus rewarding teams who attacked & blasted away at opponents & forced such corners.

But the World is now used to penalties as the tie-breaker & want to see the ball hitting the net, not counting (short) corners as described above. As a 'keeper you would have to say there is a skill in saving those penalties (and scoring them).

I think penalties as cup tie-breakers is here to stay.
I reckon NHL fans/players ect were all used to penalties too Con, but theyre changing.

For me Im either way, I don't mind penalties, I don't think Ive ever met a GK that doesn't love a shoot out.

I'd prefer to see the game take players off in extra time rather than bring fresh ones on, open the game right up.
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Re: Extra time

Post by God is an Englishman »

Take off a player every 6 minutes as long as scores are level.
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Re: Extra time

Post by The General »

have no offside rule during extra time ?

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Re: Extra time

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God is an Englishman wrote:Take off a player every 6 minutes as long as scores are level.
Changes the very structure & nature of the game.

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Re: Extra time

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The General wrote:have no offside rule during extra time ?
Changes the very structure & nature of the game.

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Re: Extra time

Post by Bomber »

Don't see any problem with penalty shoot outs. Still involves skills of the game, creates drama etc.

Taking players off one by one or ridding offside would still not guarantee sides being level after a period of time anyway, so cant see either working.
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Re: Extra time

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God is an Englishman wrote:Take off a player every 6 minutes as long as scores are level.
What if a team has had a player already sent off, the other team would just need to hold out until the 24th minute of extra time.
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Re: Extra time

Post by God is an Englishman »

paul merson wrote:
God is an Englishman wrote:Take off a player every 6 minutes as long as scores are level.
What if a team has had a player already sent off, the other team would just need to hold out until the 24th minute of extra time.
Then the final removal of a player wouldn't happen and it would stay 7 v 8.
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Re: Extra time

Post by pernunz »

Jeremy Paxman wrote:
pernunz wrote:There's no problem with penalty shootouts as a mechanism for determining a tie.
The problem is that it is so heavily weighted toward the team that wins the toss and goes first.
How so?
http://www.soccermetrics.net/paper-disc ... ios-huerta
Data were collected from 129 shootouts, which resulted in a total of over 1,300 kicks. The data included not just the actions of the shooter and goalkeeper, but also the particulars of the match and the teams. Data were presented with respect to the team which shot first in the penalty kick shootout, and in some cases the outcome of the coin toss was collected. This was most relevant after 2003, when changes to the FIFA Laws of the Game presented team captains with the option instead of the obligation to kick first upon winning the pre-shootout coin toss.
One might expect that both sides would have an equal chance to win the penalty shootout. However, the data indicate that the team that shoots first has a 60% chance of winning the penalty shootout, which in this study is significant at less than a 2% level. Even more interesting is the finding that the team shooting second has a consistently lower shooting percentage and consistently longer odds of leading the shootout after each round.

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Re: Extra time

Post by God is an Englishman »

the issue is right there with you. You've learnt what you know about football from books rather than actually playing.
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Re: Extra time

Post by Bomber »

I doubt that "data" would ever be a neat 50/50 in any case. Bit like tossing a coin 100 times - possible, but unlikely you'd get a 50/50 outcome.
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Re: Extra time

Post by pernunz »

Bomber wrote:I doubt that "data" would ever be a neat 50/50 in any case. Bit like tossing a coin 100 times - possible, but unlikely you'd get a 50/50 outcome.
That is where significance levels come in

If you assume an unbiased coin (like we would assume no bias in a penalty shootout), the probability of a head and a tail is each 50%.
http://vassarstats.net/textbook/ch7pt1.html
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Of all the combinations of heads and tails that might occur by mere chance in 100 tosses of a coin, only 4.46% of them would include as many as 59 heads. So the result in this scenario is significant a bit beyond the conventional .05 level.
As you get more data (more coin flips) then the probabilities spread out further, but being more centralised around the middle. Below is for 10 Coin Flips

[spoiler]
# Heads Probability
0 0.00098
1 0.00977
2 0.04395
3 0.11719
4 0.20508
5 0.24609
6 0.20508
7 0.11719
8 0.04395
9 0.00977
10 0.00098
[/spoiler]

This study regarding penalty shootouts shows a 60-40 split of the team going first winning the shootout accurate to a 2% significance level. This study only had 129 penalty shootouts (mainly because in 2003 the Laws of the Game changed to give the captain who won the coin toss the choice of going first) and ideally a new study would have a larger sample size.

Luckily, the same people updated their study with 212 penalty shootouts, and the 60-40 split was still observed.
The team kicking first has a 22% probability advantage over their opponents.
You can make anecdotal arguments, or say that the players should be good enough, but the fact is with the current alternating system, the way of deciding a tie in the match is weighted quite substantially to the outcome of a coin toss.

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Re: Extra time

Post by God is an Englishman »

There are so many errors with that statistical analysis that I'm sure would be stated if the full report was to be shown. However, you yourself have even stated that the analysis is out of date and also too small a sample size.

On my very first day of my Statistical Analysis Degree module a quote was put up attributed to Benjamin Disraeli, I suggest you look it up. It's very apt for this.
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Re: Extra time

Post by Grosso »

God is an Englishman wrote:Take off a player every 6 minutes as long as scores are level.
I think I heard of this solution proposed about 30 years ago.
Television commitments are probably an issue for professional games and does a team winning 5v5 prove they're any better at the sport than the team that wins the penalty shootout? rhetorical

Replacing one lottery with another.

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Re: Extra time

Post by Ronnie Biggs »

Holy shiraz !!! Grosso actually said something that makes sense.
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Re: Extra time

Post by Stitch This »

Ronnie Biggs wrote:Holy shiraz !!! Grosso actually said something that makes sense.
He can do it when he tries.
Time for some righteous indignation

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